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August 13, 2006

Israel and Hezbollah Jockey for Position

CNN can run that cheesy clock about when the ceasfire begins, but after it hits zero there won't be an end to the fighting.

The inherent contradictions in the ceasefire resolution guarantee that. Israel won't stop until the international force is in, and Hezbollah is north of the Litani River. Hezbollah won't stop until the international force is in, and Israel is out of Lebanon.

No clock is going to solve that problem. I wouldn't expect the international force to be trying to meet that deadline. Only when UN boots are on the ground will both sides have saved face enough to back off what has been a stalemate for both, a victory for neither.

However, the media cannot exist without a black and white winner and loser. Whoever "wins" will be whomever manipulates the media the best. I think Hezbollah will win this round because expectations were so low going into the fight. Not unlike American politics. Perception is reality.

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