Trust No Poll Before Its Time

To paraphrase Orson Welles's old wine commercial, trust no poll before its time.There has been much surprise among younger bloggers about how the Lieberman-Lamont primary tightened so quickly right before the vote. Lamont had a large lead up until about the last week.

There is a lot of excitement among the same group about a Democratic takeover of the House, based on polls run in various congressional districts. A piece of advice: beware the double-digit lead.

Lieberman-Lamont is typical of the unreliability of polls until almost the last week of an election cycle. Most voters don't even focus on their congressional races until then. And party rank and file who publicly express doubts about whom they will vote for tend to return to their usual voting pattern on election day.

A recent poll in Indiana shows 3 Democrats with double-digit leads over their opponents, all incumbents. If people take that to mean the Dems will win all three, they don't know how conservative Indiana is.

Those double-digit leads should disappear by election day. If the Dems win one of those seats it will be a big accomplishment. If they do win all three, it will indicate a huge sweep of the House by the Dems. They are three good races to watch on election day as an indication of how the House will go.

Don't expect big wins based on polls this early in the election season. They are always fun to watch and to analyze, but incumbent congressmen haven't even been able to come home to campaign. When they do, and we get closer to election day, watch those races tighten.