The Year of the Independent

Much print and many articles have focused on the "Get out the Vote" (GOTV) apparatus of the two parties. In a normal midterm election that would be a critical component for both parties.

However, I don't think this is a "normal" midterm election. Not with the war in Iraq, a foreign policy issue, playing the biggest role in this election. Normally, congressional elections are based upon economic well-being, not foreign policy. That makes this a very different election from other midterms.

All politics is local? That is still true, even with a "national issue" like Iraq dominating the election. How can it be both? Because when a local serviceman or woman dies in Iraq, and is returned home for burial, Iraq is a very local issue.

When an election like this is nationalized and a mandate about a President's foreign policy, GOTV is important. Trumping GOTV, though, in this type of race, is a voting bloc which has been ignored in the partisanship of the last decade.

That bloc is the Independent voters. A high election turnout for a midterm in the 40 percent range will not be a GOTV result. It will be the return of the Independent voter who has sat out the midterm and local elections in the past decade.

It will be refreshing to see them back, participating in the most important function we have as citizens, voting. It will also be refreshing, because, if the Democrats win at least the House both parties will get the nonpartisan messages that:

1. a dramatic course correction is needed for Iraq; and
2. voters want the parties to start governing by consensus and not by partisanship.

Bush before the Fall

As usual, Boy George has it backwards. "We'll stand down when the Iraqis stand up." Then when the al-Maliki government tells the U.S. military to take down checkpoints in Sadr City, the U.S. military objects.

That slogan he uses (and all he has are memorized slogans) has allowed the Iraqi government to avoid the hard decisions, do nothing, and rely on U.S. forces to do their job for them. Bush should be saying, "The Iraqis will only stand up when we stand down, so we're going to start to draw down our forces".

Speaking of memorization. John Kerry has created a nice little mess for Democrats in close races. This is what happens when you try to memorize your lines, rather than speaking your mind.

He muffed a joke about Bush that had been fed to him by one of his advisers, giving the right wing nuts new fodder for one last desperate attempt to sway voters.

Thankfully, good will unintentionally be the result of Kerry's blunder, because Bush is dumb enough to use it to continue to try to tell the American people how great the Iraq situation is. Keep talking, George. Pelosi needs you to deliver a comfortable majority in the House after Nov. 7.

Mid-Term Election Predictions

As of today, I think the Senate will split 50-50, with the Dems taking only one of the last three states rated tossups (Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia).

I think Sen Macaca of Virginia is going down. Not only has he shown he's not presidential material, he's shown he's a bully. People don't like bullies.

In the House, Bush is going to feel the public rage for having no plan after almost 4 years to get us out of Iraq. I think the Republicans will lose at least 30 seats, giving the Dems a 15 seat majority.

After six years of majorities in both houses, he is not sophisticated nor intelligent enough to know how to make deals with the Dems. That means gridlock, no change in Iraq, and another election about the war.

He is on the way to making the Republican Party a minority party again, thanks to his arrogance, stubborness, and concern for his historical legacy. It will be a long time before any politician uses the "stay the course" slogan again.